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13
A run down of the main areas affected by space weather include
Power Transmission, Aviation, Transport and Communications.
Aviation:
Air crews operating over Europe are now classified as ‘radiation
workers’ owing to the cosmic radiation present at cruising altitude
near the polar regions (100x more intense than at ground
level). Aircraft systems and hardware such as communications,
navigation and flight control are also all susceptible to ionospheric
scintillation, solar radio bursts and space weather interference.
These factors can result in crew being grounded and flight paths
being diverted or altered which lead to increased flight times and
fuel consumption and inevitable delays.
Communications:
The threat to communications is heavily weighted towards
wireless technology and mobile phones. Approximately only 1%
of international telephone calls are made by satellite and long
distance phone lines as well as the internet are wired through
fibre optics cables which are unaffected by space weather so
there isn’t much risk to these communication mediums. By
contrast, there were over 4.3 billion mobile phone connections in
2009 and mobile signals are vulnerable to solar radio bursts and
disruption to satellite service. Wireless technology has prospered
since its recent introduction, however this is due in part to the
quiet space weather conditions of the current cycle – expect to
suffer disruption and signal loss as solar radio bursts increase in
coming years.
Transport:
As previously mentioned, GPS signals may fall victim to Solar
flares, but unless you don’t actually look at the road whilst driving,
the slight inaccuracies shouldn’t be an issue! There may be more
debilitating effects on the rail system however, as the increased
electrical current that affects power grids can also throw train
signalling into disarray. There has also been investigation into
the impact on electronic systems such as engine management in
cars – a report is due next year.
Power:
The most far reaching impact will be power grids and the plethora
of services dependant on electricity. Changes in the Earths’
magnetic field caused by magnetic storms can generate electric
fields in the sub-surface which in turn drives electrical current into
metal networks. Most power grids have safety cut-offs to prevent
damage in the event of a surge. Many utility providers now have
connected power networks to compensate for fluctuating demand
across a region; however this can lead to a cascade effect where
a whole grid is shut down, as was the case in 1989 in Quebec.
The scope of the issue is concerning when you consider that
water pumps, sewage pumps, food refrigeration, online banking,
inventory control, fuel pumps, economic transactions, gas and
heating, lighting and hospitals are just some of the services relying
on electricity. If you take this one step further and contemplate
the Business Interruption potential from a serious solar event
you start to understand the need for preparation. A study by
Metatech Corporation in 2009 suggested that if a magnetic storm
equivalent to the 1921 event in North America (resulting in loss
of all communication signals between the Atlantic coast and
Mississippi) were repeated today, a black out would affect up to
130 million people and around 350 power transformers would be
permanently damaged.
In the next issue of Touchline, we will examine forecasting
and the steps being taken to combat the risk as well as the
considerations for the insurance industry.
So how does this phenomenon actually impact upon our world?
... if a magnetic storm equivalent
to the 1921 event ... were repeated
today, a black out would affect up
to 130 million people and around
350 power transformers would be
permanently damaged.